Blauwe golf, of toch een Rode?

ma, 05/11/2018 - 12:04

Op 6 november 2018 zijn er in de Verenigde Staten verkiezingen voor het Congres en de Senaat. Over het algemeen wordt er een "blue wave" verwacht waarbij de Democraten de meerderheid zouden behalen in Congres en misschien ook de Senaat. De hoop is dat ze van Trump een "lame duck"- president kunnen maken of hem toch ten minste kunnen neutraliseren. Of deze verwachting uitkomt is echter de vraag. Enkele dwarsdenkers hebben een andere mening. Om te beginnen ex-CIA agent en whistleblower Philip Giraldi:

"And the Democrats are also tactically inept. Having the widely despised Clintons and Obama out campaigning for Democratic candidates will surely encourage nervous Republicans to get out to vote. So, on balance, the GOP could do very well next week with issues-focused voters and might retain its advantage in both houses of congress. If that is so, the complaining from the Democrats will start immediately. Will their failure be blamed on the Russians again this time?"

Vervolgens hebben we blogger moonofalabama:

"The U.S. economy is doing relatively well. The recent drop in share prices points to a more mixed outlook from here on, but so far everything held up.

The Democrats have neither a program nor a leadership that incites to vote fro them. They wasted two years with hyping a non-existent Russiagate that no one but Washington insiders and the media cares about. Did they actually oppose anything Trump did? They tried a #metoo stunt around a Supreme Court nomination but how effective was that?

The Democrats also failed to get rid of Hillary Clinton, or at least to shut her up. How can she, the most hated woman in the U.S.,  suggest to run again for president just a few days before the mid-terms? (Her candidacy would give Trump the easiest re-election ever.)

Trump continues to be an excellent salesman. He knows how to get and maintain attention. Each day he makes some outrageous claim or acts on some hot button issue. This has two effects: it is red meat for his base, and it gives major media attention to his politics.

Over the last days he offered a 10% tax cut for the middle class, bashed the media, suggested that house of worship should have armed guards, bashed the media more, sent troops to the border to stop a migrant caravan, bashed the media again, and attacked birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants. He surely has a list of seven other issues to fill the daily news cycles until the election.

All of the above lets me expect a higher turnout of voters who lean Republican than of those who lean towards Democrats. The higher turnout wins."

Peter Van Buren, gewezen diplomaat bij het Amerikaanse minister van buitenlandse zaken, rondt het rijtje af:

"The whole midterm hopey-changey thing instead depends on historical turnouts from Millennials and minorities loosely attached to the electorate, though there doesn’t seem to be much of a plan for getting them out other than social media and bringing back the undead Hillary to proclaim an end to political civility until her side finally wins an election. Meanwhile, Republicans rely on demographics that actually do turn out, in such numbers that Democrats need to motivate four Millennials to produce one vote (for Republicans, it’s more like three). Actual turnout for those aged 65 and higher is expected to be 82 percent; it drops to 26 percent for those ages 18 to 29.

There are other factors. Trump’s overall approval rating continues to rise, a bad sign for a Democratic Party framing the midterms as a referendum on him. Some 75 percent of Republicans want their congressional candidates to fall in line with Trump’s agenda. Republicans vote in midterms in higher percentages than Democrats. A group Democrats magically hoped would support them because they are not white, “Hispanics,” apparently don’t see it that way."

Niemand van de drie vermelde observatoren is een fan van Trump. Maar ze zeggen wel alle drie min of meer hetzelfde: de partij die de verkiezingen wint, is de partij die de meeste kiezers kan overtuigen om te gaan stemmen. En de Democraten zijn niet die partij.